What kinds of risk does this assessment cover?

Market, demand, competitive, supply, price and regulatory risks that come from outside the company. Operational risks inside a plant, such as equipment failure, staffing or process safety, are covered by a separate operational risk analysis, and the two can be combined when a project needs both views.

How are likelihood and impact rated?

On a simple scale agreed at scoping, usually five levels each. Every rating is supported by evidence from data or interviews, so the team can see why a risk sits where it does.

Can the assessment be updated later?

Yes. Many companies refresh the register and indicators every six or twelve months, or when a major market event occurs, such as a new tariff, a large competitor investment or a sharp move in raw material prices. A refresh is quicker than the first assessment because the structure and sources are already in place.

Is this a replacement for an internal risk register?

No. It complements an internal register by adding an independent, evidence-based view of external risks that internal teams may underweight.

Who sees the results?

The results belong to the company. They are usually presented to the leadership team and, where relevant, to the board or investment committee.

Business Risk Assessment

What could stop this plan from delivering, how likely is it, and what would it cost if it happened?

A business risk assessment looks at a plan from the outside in and asks what in the market, the supply base, regulation or competition could undermine it. Credence Research identifies the risks that matter, rates their likelihood and impact with evidence rather than opinion, and links each one to an early warning sign and a practical response. The focus is commercial and market risk, the kind that sits outside the company's own operations but shapes its results.

Discuss your risk question See the deliverables

When a business risk assessment helps

It suits decisions where the opportunity looks attractive and leadership wants an independent view of what could go wrong before committing.

Before a major investment

Test the external assumptions behind a new plant, acquisition or product line before the board approves it.

Entering an unfamiliar market

Understand the regulatory, competitive and demand risks of a new country or segment.

Dependence on a few suppliers or customers

Measure how exposed the business is to a single source, buyer or trade route.

Annual strategy review

Refresh the view of external risks so the strategy and budget reflect current conditions.

Questions a business risk assessment answers

Demand risk

How sensitive is demand to economic cycles, substitution or changing customer preferences?
Which customer segments could shrink or shift to alternatives?
How concentrated is revenue in a few customers or regions?

Competitive risk

Which competitors could respond with price cuts, new capacity or new products?
Are new entrants or new technologies likely to change the market?
How easily could customers switch suppliers?

Supply and cost risk

Which raw materials or components have few sources or volatile prices?
Which trade routes, tariffs or logistics bottlenecks affect supply?
How quickly could an alternative source be qualified?

Regulatory and policy risk

Which pending rules, standards or subsidies could change the economics of the plan?
How stable is the policy environment in the target country?
Which approvals or permits carry timing risk?

What published data can show, and what needs research

Many risks are visible in public data once someone looks for them. Others depend on how customers, suppliers and regulators are likely to behave, which needs informed judgment from people close to the market.

Where desk research is usually enough and where primary research is needed
Risk area	Published data shows	Still uncertain	How it is tested
Demand	Historic demand and forecasts by segment	How customers would react to a downturn or substitute	Customer and distributor interviews
Competition	Competitor capacity, products and announcements	How competitors are likely to respond	Industry and channel interviews
Supply	Supplier lists, trade flows and price history	Real lead times and alternative sources	Supplier and buyer interviews
Regulation	Current rules and published consultations	Timing and likely final form of new rules	Discussions with regulatory specialists and industry bodies
Prices	Price indexes and trade unit values	Contract terms and pass-through in practice	Price checks with buyers and traders

Each risk is rated on likelihood and impact with the evidence shown, so the ranking can be discussed and challenged rather than accepted on trust.

Illustrative example

This example is illustrative. It shows how a study could be designed and does not describe a Credence Research client project.

Testing the external risks of a battery materials expansion

Illustrative example

Business question: A materials company plans to double capacity for a battery cathode precursor to serve electric vehicle makers in Europe. The board wants an independent view of the market and supply risks before approving the expansion.
Approach: Desk research covers demand scenarios, competitor capacity additions, raw material sources and pending European rules on battery materials. Interviews with cell makers, traders and industry specialists test how demand, prices and supply could move.
Outputs: A risk register with each risk rated on likelihood and impact, a heat map, the early warning indicators for the top risks and suggested responses, such as contract structures or alternative sources.
Decision supported: Whether to approve the expansion as planned, phase it, or add safeguards such as offtake agreements before committing.

What this study does not include

Clear limits keep the findings honest and the scope easy to agree.

Insurance advice, actuarial work or the pricing of insurance cover.
Legal opinions on contracts, liability or compliance obligations.
Internal audit of controls, IT security or financial reporting.

The assessment covers business and market risk. Where a risk has legal, insurance or safety dimensions, it is flagged for the company's specialist advisers.

What you receive

Outputs are agreed at scoping; this is a typical set.

Risk register
Each identified risk described, rated on likelihood and impact and linked to its evidence.
Use it to agree which risks deserve attention.
Risk heat map
A visual ranking of risks on likelihood and impact.
Use it to brief the board and leadership quickly.
Scenario view
Two or three scenarios showing how the main risks could combine and what they would mean for the plan.
Use it to stress-test the business case.
Early warning indicators
Measurable signals for the top risks, with sources and suggested thresholds.
Use it to monitor risks after the decision.
Response options
Practical options to reduce, share or accept each major risk, such as supply contracts, pricing clauses, phased investment or alternative sources.
Use it to build safeguards into the plan.

How a business risk assessment works

1
ScopingThe plan, its key assumptions and the risk areas to cover are agreed with the company's team.
2
Risk identificationDesk research and internal discussions produce a long list of possible risks, grouped by area. Duplicates are merged and risks with no plausible link to the plan are set aside.
3
Evidence gatheringInterviews with customers, suppliers and industry specialists test the most important risks and add views on timing, warning signs and how others in the industry are preparing.
4
Rating and scenariosRisks are rated on likelihood and impact, and scenarios show how they could combine.
5
Review and monitoring planFindings are reviewed with leadership, and early warning indicators are agreed for ongoing tracking.

Frequently asked questions

Discuss your risk question

Describe the plan or investment under review and the risks that concern the team most. A short brief helps the team judge the right depth of assessment.

What happens next

A member of the Credence Research team reviews the brief and replies to discuss scope and approach. If published research already answers the question, the reply points to it.

Prefer to start with existing research? Browse market research reports

Business Risk Assessment

When a business risk assessment helps

Questions a business risk assessment answers

Demand risk

Competitive risk

Supply and cost risk

Regulatory and policy risk

What published data can show, and what needs research

Illustrative example

Testing the external risks of a battery materials expansion

What this study does not include

What you receive

Risk register

Risk heat map

Scenario view

Early warning indicators

Response options

How a business risk assessment works

Related services

Frequently asked questions

Discuss your risk question