APAC Organic Rankine Cycle Market Size, Share, Growth and Forecast, 2025-2035

Binary geothermal and factory heat recovery lift ORC demand

The APAC organic Rankine cycle market was valued at USD 481.5 million in 2025 and is projected to increase from USD 533.5 million in 2026 to USD 1.34 billion by 2035, registering a CAGR of 10.80% during 2026–2035. Demand comes from utilities that add binary units to geothermal fields, factories that turn low-grade exhaust heat into power and biomass plants that need small turbines for steady output. China held the largest share, 50.2% in 2025, because steel, cement and chemical plants recover heat under national energy-saving targets. New Zealand is the fastest-growing market at 15.76% a year, as large binary expansions at Taupo-area fields move toward commercial operation. Southeast Asia adds steady orders from Indonesian and Philippine operators that recover heat from brine at existing flash plants. Technology is also shifting, because screw expanders and packaged modules now make units below 1 MWe practical for small factories and hot spring sites.

What does the regional ORC estimate cover?

The estimate measures the value of organic Rankine cycle systems sold and serviced in China, New Zealand, Southeast Asia and the remaining covered Asia-Pacific markets. It counts turbine and expander packages, heat exchangers, working fluid systems and controls, along with engineering, construction and operations and maintenance contracts tied to these units. Projects bought as stand-alone equipment and as full turnkey plants both count toward the total.

The estimate excludes conventional steam turbines, flash geothermal plants, heat pumps and the value of electricity sold by ORC plants. The value chain runs from turbine and expander makers through heat exchanger suppliers and engineering contractors to utilities, independent power producers, factories and energy-service companies that own and operate the units.

Waste heat leads while geothermal heat grows fastest

Why does industrial waste heat lead energy sources?

Based on energy source, the market is categorized into geothermal heat, industrial waste heat, biomass heat and solar and residual renewable heat. Industrial waste heat led with a 47.0% share of 2025 value, because Chinese steel, cement and glass plants recover exhaust heat to meet energy-saving targets. Geothermal heat grows fastest at 11.45% a year, as Indonesian, Philippine and New Zealand operators add binary units to existing fields.

How does bottoming-cycle recovery shape applications?

Based on application, the market is categorized into standalone power generation, bottoming-cycle power recovery and combined heat and power. Bottoming-cycle power recovery led with a 52.0% share of 2025 value, because most units recover heat left over from furnaces, engines or flash geothermal plants. Standalone power generation grows fastest at 11.27% a year, as greenfield binary geothermal plants such as Ijen sell their full output under long contracts.

Why do electricity generators lead end-user demand?

Based on end user, the market is categorized into electricity generators, process manufacturers, bioenergy operators and distributed energy users. Electricity generators led with a 41.0% share of 2025 value, because geothermal utilities buy the largest binary units in the region. Distributed energy users grow fastest at 11.97% a year, as hot spring owners, small factories and remote sites install packaged modules rated below 1 MWe.

How does project size split regional demand?

Based on project scale, the market is categorized into below 0.5 MWe, 0.5 to below 5 MWe, 5 to below 20 MWe and 20 MWe and above. 20 MWe and above led with a 33.0% share of 2025 value, because single geothermal binary plants such as Te Huka 3 and Ijen exceed 30 MW. Below 0.5 MWe grows fastest at 11.87% a year, as packaged modules reach hot springs and small factories.

Geothermal buying, heat recovery and small units lift sales

How does utility geothermal procurement lift binary orders?

Utilities and power producers in Indonesia, the Philippines and New Zealand are buying large binary units, which makes geothermal procurement the biggest single source of project value. Indonesia holds about 40% of the world's geothermal reserves, according to the World Bank. Indonesia's RUPTL 2025 to 2034 supply plan adds 5.2 GW of geothermal capacity out of 69.5 GW of new generation, Hogan Lovells reported in June 2025. Ormat and Medco Power Indonesia began operating the 35 MW first phase of the Ijen plant on Feb. 10, 2025, under a 30-year power purchase agreement, according to Ormat. As a result, electricity generators lead end-user demand with a 41.0% share of 2025 value.

Why does industrial heat monetization drive Chinese demand?

Chinese factories now treat low-grade exhaust heat as a power source, because national plans reward lower energy use per unit of output. The State Council issued its 2024 to 2025 energy conservation and carbon reduction action plan on May 23, 2024, with a goal to save 50 million tons of standard coal equivalent in key sectors in each year, China Briefing reported. The plan also asks steelmakers to raise the self-generation rate of residual heat, pressure and energy by 3 percentage points. Cement makers must cut about 13 million tons of carbon dioxide over 2024 and 2025 under the same plan. As a result, industrial waste heat leads energy sources with a 47.0% share of 2025 value.

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How do modular low-temperature units widen the buyer base?

Packaged ORC modules now run on heat sources as cool as 80 C, which lets small factories and hot spring owners buy units that once suited only utilities. Kaishan Group says its screw-expander ORC systems use low-grade heat above 80 C and have been installed in China and Indonesia, Sustainability Matters reported. ElectraTherm commissioned a Power+ unit rated up to 110 kWe at a Beppu onsen in March 2016, which uses 110 C geothermal steam, ThinkGeoEnergy reported. Pune-based HrimTron Energy Systems is also testing its Avega ORC turbine, rated 55 to 520 kWe, in steel and waste plants, according to NITI Aayog. As a result, units below 0.5 MWe grow fastest by scale at 11.87% a year.

Why do bottoming units at flash plants add new demand?

Operators of flash geothermal plants can add binary units that run on leftover brine, which raises output without new drilling. Pertamina Geothermal Energy and PLN Indonesia Power agreed a tariff for the 30 MW Ulubelu binary bottoming unit on Dec. 24, 2025, and target operation in 2027, according to Pertamina Geothermal Energy. The same partners signed a tariff for the 15 MW Lahendong bottoming unit in April 2026, with operation expected by 2028, ThinkGeoEnergy reported. Kaishan's KS Orka and Pertamina Geothermal Energy also signed a 2023 cooperation pact covering a 210 MW waste heat portfolio at existing fields. As a result, bottoming-cycle power recovery leads applications with a 52.0% share of 2025 value.

Brine bottoming units and local turbines reshape supply

How is brine recovery rising at existing geothermal fields?

Geothermal operators are recovering heat from brine that flash plants used to reinject, which turns sunk well costs into new output. Exergy supplied a 3.6 MW ORC unit for the Mindanao 3 plant in the Philippines, which recovers brine heat from the existing Mindanao 1 and Mindanao 2 plants without new wells, ThinkGeoEnergy reported in April 2022. Energy Development Corporation later ordered a 28 MW Exergy binary system for its 180 MW Mahanagdong plant in Leyte. Star Energy Geothermal completed testing of the 15.5 MW Salak binary plant, built with Ormat equipment, in February 2025. Idle wells and brine in Indonesia could add about 2,000 MW without new drilling, ThinkGeoEnergy reported in January 2023. As a result, Southeast Asia grows at 11.96% a year.

Why are large binary plants emerging in hot reservoirs?

Developers now choose binary units even at high-temperature fields, which lifts average project size across the region. Contact Energy first synchronized the 51.4 MW Te Huka 3 binary unit to the grid on Oct. 14, 2024, and the plant uses pentane heated by geothermal fluid, according to Contact Energy. Contact Energy later selected Ormat in November 2024 to build the 101 MW Te Mihi Stage 2 binary plant, with completion expected around mid-2027, EnergyTech reported. Mercury also hired Ormat in September 2023 for a 56 MW Ngatamariki expansion. As a result, projects of 20 MWe and above lead project scale with a 33.0% share of 2025 value.

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Can locally built turbines open room for lower-cost units?

Asian suppliers are designing their own ORC turbines and expanders, which creates an opening for lower-cost units in price-sensitive factories. HrimTron Energy Systems says its Avega turbine costs 30% to 40% less than comparable imported ORC systems, because it avoids imported mechanical parts, NITI Aayog's Frontier Tech hub reported. Nanjing-based TICA bought Exergy in January 2020 and paired its radial outflow turbine with TICA's small PureCycle units, giving a range from 280 kW up to 25 MW per turbine, Power Progress reported. Kaishan Group also builds its screw expanders at its own plants in China. As a result, distributed energy users grow fastest among end users at 11.97% a year.

Is there room for heat recovery at engine and biomass plants?

Gas engine plants and biomass boilers across the region reject heat that small ORC units can convert, which opens a retrofit market for packaged suppliers. Orcan Energy and its partner VPower Group installed 70 efficiency PACK modules on a 90 MW gas engine plant in Myanmar, which adds about 40 GWh of electricity a year, Cleanthinking reported in April 2019. Kobe Steel has marketed its MicroBinary unit since 2011 for factory waste heat and geothermal heat in Japan. Turboden appointed Daiichi Jitsugyo in May 2016 to sell its medium and large ORC units in Japan. As a result, combined heat and power and engine retrofits keep a steady share of regional orders.

Resource risk, lead times and low power prices slow uptake

Why does resource risk slow geothermal binary projects?

Geothermal binary projects depend on wells that may not deliver enough heat, which makes lenders cautious before drilling results are known. Exploring one Indonesian site costs USD 30 to 50 million, and developing a 100 MW site can cost up to USD 400 million, according to the World Bank. As a result, smaller developers struggle to fund early work. Governments respond with risk-sharing facilities, while operators favor bottoming units at proven fields.

How do long lead times delay commissioning?

Large ORC plants take years to move from contract to operation, which delays revenue for owners and suppliers. Star Energy Geothermal contracted Ormat for the Salak binary plant in 2021, but missed operation targets for 2022 and late 2023 before testing finished in February 2025, ThinkGeoEnergy reported. Tariff talks, financing and grid access all add to this delay. Operators respond by reusing existing wells and standardizing binary designs across projects.

Why do low power prices weaken small-unit returns?

Small ORC units earn little when the electricity they save or sell is cheap, which stretches payback for factories. Kaishan Group puts the typical payback of its screw-expander systems at 12 to 18 months, but says the period depends on local energy costs, Sustainability Matters reported. The ElectraTherm unit at a Beppu onsen, for example, sells power under Japan's feed-in tariff for renewables, which shields its owner from low wholesale prices. As a result, units without such support take longer to repay. Suppliers respond with cheaper expanders and shared-savings contracts that cut upfront costs.

How do thin service networks raise operating risk?

Many ORC suppliers are based in Europe or the United States, which leaves Asian owners with long waits for parts and specialist technicians. Many owners in the region run only one or two small units, which gives them little leverage to demand fast repairs from distant suppliers. As a result, small owners face longer outages when a turbine or pump fails. Suppliers respond by training local partners and offering remote monitoring under long service contracts.

China leads while New Zealand grows fastest

Why does China lead regional ORC value?

China held 50.2% of 2025 value and grows at 10.86% a year, because its steel, cement and chemical plants form the largest pool of recoverable exhaust heat in the region. Factories install ORC units alongside other waste heat recovery systems to meet the 2024 to 2025 energy-saving plan. Kaishan builds screw expanders domestically, and TICA owns Exergy, which gives Chinese buyers local supply. Geothermal power remains small, however, with a national forecast of 500 MW by 2035.

How does Southeast Asia grow through binary geothermal?

Southeast Asia held a 10.7% share of 2025 value and grows at 11.96% a year, because Indonesia and the Philippines add binary units to large geothermal fleets. Indonesia had 2,742 MW of geothermal capacity and the Philippines 2,034 MW at the end of 2025, ThinkGeoEnergy reported. First Gen and EDC commissioned the 29 MW Palayan binary plant in July 2024. These projects add to wider geothermal power generation capacity in both countries.

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Why is New Zealand the fastest-growing market?

New Zealand held a 0.7% share of 2025 value and grows fastest at 15.76% a year, because large a small 2025 base meets large binary expansions due to enter service from 2026 onward. The country had 1,259 MW of geothermal capacity at the end of 2025, including Te Huka 3, ThinkGeoEnergy reported. Ormat is building the 101 MW Te Mihi Stage 2 plant for Contact Energy and a 56 MW Ngatamariki expansion for Mercury, both using units from its Ormat Energy Converter line.

How do the remaining markets add steady demand?

The remaining covered Asia-Pacific markets held a 38.4% share of 2025 value and grow at 10.26% a year, led by Japan, India and South Korea. Japan had 607 MW of geothermal capacity at the end of 2025, and onsen owners there run small binary units from ElectraTherm and Climeon. Indian steel and waste management sites are also testing locally built ORC turbines alongside combined heat and power systems.

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Binary plant starts and bottoming tariffs since 2024

Radial turbines, screw expanders and small modules compete

• Ormat Energy Converter units power large binary plants such as Ijen, Salak and Te Huka 3, which use organic fluids heated by geothermal brine and steam.
• Radial outflow turbines from Exergy recover brine heat at Philippine plants, which lets EDC raise output at Mindanao and Mahanagdong without new wells.
• Screw expanders from Kaishan run on heat above 80 C, which suits Chinese factories and Indonesian well-head projects with variable flow.
• Packaged small modules such as ElectraTherm Power+ and Kobe Steel MicroBinary units deliver about 100 kWe, which suits onsen and small factory sites.

Binary specialists and Chinese makers compete on cost

Competition combines geothermal binary specialists, European ORC makers and Chinese equipment groups. Ormat leads large binary geothermal work in Indonesia and New Zealand, where it supplies Ormat Energy Converter units to Medco, Star Energy, Contact Energy and Mercury. Exergy, owned by TICA, competes for brine recovery plants in the Philippines with its radial outflow turbines. Kaishan Group builds screw expanders in China and develops geothermal fields in Indonesia through KS Orka. Turboden, part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, sells medium and large units in Japan through Daiichi Jitsugyo. Smaller suppliers, including ElectraTherm, Climeon, Orcan Energy and Kobe Steel, target onsen, engine and factory heat with packaged modules. Companies compete on turbine efficiency at low temperatures, delivery time, local service and the ability to finance or co-develop projects with owners.

Companies profiled and their roles in this market

Credence Research view on regional ORC demand

Credence Research's view is that ORC demand in the Asia-Pacific region will grow at a strong pace, because geothermal utilities and heavy industry both need ways to turn low-grade heat into power. Industrial waste heat keeps the largest energy source share, but geothermal heat grows faster as Indonesia, the Philippines and New Zealand build binary and bottoming units. China stays the largest market, while New Zealand grows fastest from a small base. However, resource risk, long lead times and low power prices will slow some projects. Suppliers that build local service teams should gain share over the decade.

How the regional ORC estimate was built

The report uses 2025 as the base year on a calendar basis, and market values come from the Credence Research model. That model combines installed and planned ORC capacity, geothermal capacity statistics, project costs per megawatt, industrial energy-saving programs and service revenue per unit. Market shares, segment splits and growth rates are Credence Research estimates. Sources used are multilateral lender records, government plans, company releases and filings, and news reports, and no interviews or surveys were used.

Bottoming units and geothermal pipelines lift growth to 2035

APAC organic Rankine cycle value is expected to reach USD 1.34 billion by 2035, a 10.80% CAGR during 2026–2035, as geothermal binary plants, bottoming units and factory heat recovery carry growth. Indonesia should add binary units at Ulubelu, Lahendong and new fields under its 5.2 GW geothermal plan. New Zealand will bring Te Mihi Stage 2 and Ngatamariki into service, while China keeps adding heat recovery at steel and cement plants. Faster tariff approvals would raise this outlook, while weak industrial output or failed wells would lower it.

Note: The depth of individual sections depends on data availability for this market. Volume, capacity, trade and other unit-based metrics are included where applicable.