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Medical device installed base analysis

Know how much equipment is in use, how old it is and when it is likely to be replaced

For capital equipment, next year's sales depend heavily on what is already installed: how many units are in use, how old they are, who made them and how much service and consumables they generate. Credence Research estimates installed base by country, facility type and age, and turns it into replacement and new-sales scenarios.

Discuss your installed base questionSee what the outputs include

From facilities to revenue, and where public data is usually thinnest

1FacilitiesCounts by facility type
2Units installedUnits per facility
3Age and conditionAge distribution
4New and replacement salesReplacement triggers
5Service and consumablesUsage per unit

Marked items are rarely published. They usually need facility data, interviews and modeling.

What is an installed base?

An installed base is the number of units of a product that are in use at a point in time. For medical equipment, it is usually estimated by facility type, such as hospitals, clinics and ambulatory surgery centers. Installed base changes as new units are added and old units are retired, so an estimate needs data on sales, replacement cycles and retirements.

Decisions that depend on installed base

Installed base estimates matter most for capital equipment with long replacement cycles and recurring service or consumables revenue.

Forecasting replacement demand

You need to know how many units will reach replacement age each year.

Targeting sales

You want to focus on facility types or regions with older equipment or low penetration.

Estimating service and consumables revenue

Recurring revenue depends on how many units are in use and how heavily they are used.

Assessing competitive share

You need an estimate of each vendor's share of units in use, not just new sales.

Evaluating an acquisition

A target's value depends on its installed base and the revenue it generates.

Start with what you already know

Most manufacturers know their own shipments and service contracts. What usually remains uncertain is the size and age of competitors' installed base, how many units are retired each year and how replacement decisions are made.

Questions installed base analysis can investigate

Size

  • How many units are installed by country and facility type?
  • How many units does a typical facility hold?
  • What is the penetration in smaller facilities?

Age and replacement

  • How old is the installed base?
  • What triggers replacement: age, technology, reimbursement or budget cycles?
  • How many units are likely to be replaced each year?

Vendors

  • What share of installed units does each vendor hold?
  • Where is competitors' installed base aging?
  • How loyal are facilities when replacing?

Revenue

  • What service and consumables revenue does each unit generate?
  • How does usage vary by facility type?
  • What is the total recurring revenue pool?

What public sources can tell you, and what needs further validation

Facility registries, some national equipment statistics, tender records and company disclosures provide a starting point. Coverage varies widely by country and equipment type.

Where desk research is often sufficient, and where decisions usually need more evidence
TopicDesk research can often establishWhat often remains unresolvedHow it can be tested
Facility countsRegistries in many countriesCounts by type in countries without registriesEstimates from multiple sources, checked with distributors
Units per facilitySome national statistics for major equipmentUnits in smaller facilities and less-tracked equipmentSurveys or interviews with facilities and distributors
Age of equipmentRarely publishedAge distribution and replacement timingInterviews and modeling from historical sales
Vendor shareCompany disclosures and tender awardsShare of units in useTender analysis and interviews
UsageProcedure statisticsUsage per unit and consumables per procedureClinical and service interviews

AI tools can help assemble facility lists and tender records across countries. Installed base estimates depend on assumptions about units per facility, age and retirement, which should be tested with people who buy and service the equipment.

How evidence gaps translate into research

This example is illustrative. It shows how a study could be designed and does not describe a specific client engagement.

Replacement demand for imaging equipment

Illustrative example
Business question
An imaging equipment manufacturer wants to forecast replacement demand in Southeast Asia over five years.
Evidence gap
Facility counts are available, but units per facility, equipment age and replacement triggers are not.
Research method
Facility-level modeling, tender analysis and interviews with hospital biomedical engineering staff and distributors.
Deliverable
An installed base model by country and facility type, with replacement scenarios.
Decision supported
Sales targets and account prioritization by country.

Our research approach

We combine qualitative and quantitative research with data modeling. The core relationship is simple: installed base at the end of a period equals installed base at the start, plus new units, minus retired units.

Methods, what they are used for and their limits
MethodPurposeLimitation
Facility-level modelingEstimate units from facility counts and units per facilitySensitive to per-facility assumptions
Historical sales modelingBuild installed base and age from past shipments and retirementsNeeds long sales histories
Tender and procurement analysisIdentify purchases and vendorsCoverage varies by country
Facility and distributor interviews or surveysTest units, age and replacement triggersSamples may not represent all facilities
Scenario analysisShow replacement demand under different budget and technology assumptionsScenarios are not forecasts

We do not seek confidential information from competitors, and we do not present interview opinions as audited data.

What you receive

Deliverables depend on scope, and not every study includes every output. We agree on outputs during scoping.

  • Installed base model

    Units by country, facility type, age band and vendor, with assumptions.

    Use it to size the equipment in use.

  • Replacement forecast

    Expected replacements by year under stated scenarios.

    Use it to set sales targets.

  • Vendor share estimates

    Share of installed units by vendor, shown as ranges.

    Use it to identify competitive opportunities.

  • Recurring revenue estimate

    Service and consumables revenue pool by segment.

    Use it to plan service and consumables strategy.

Published report or custom research?

Published medical device market reports usually report annual sales, not units in use. Installed base analysis is more useful when your decision depends on replacement timing, recurring revenue or competitors' installed units.

Is installed base analysis right for your decision?

  • You sell capital equipment with multi-year replacement cycles.
  • Recurring service or consumables revenue matters to your business.
  • You need to know competitors' installed units or equipment age.
  • You have a planning or investment decision ahead.

If most of these apply, a scoping conversation is likely to be productive. If not, a published report or a short discussion about scope may be a better first step.

Discuss your installed base question

Frequently asked questions

Discuss your installed base question

Tell us about the equipment, markets and decision you are working on.

What happens next

A member of our research team reviews your brief and contacts you to discuss scope and approach. If existing research can answer your question, we will point you to it.

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